‘The 23 republics in the Senate do not always march to the beat of the Palace.’
OR the committee chairs, to be precise.
This is what Sen. Francis "Kiko" Pangilinan will soon discover, if he has not begun to discover, now that Sen. Franklin Drilon graciously gave way to the younger senator to become the Liberal Party’s Senate President presumptive. Both are friends who this writer hold in high esteem, and whoever of the two the LP chose as its champion against announced candidate Manuel Villar of the Nacionalista Party, the Senate would be in able hands.
The numbers game in the Senate is quite precarious. There are only 23 senators, one of whom, Sen. Antonio Trillanes, is in jail, and another, Sen. Panfilo Lacson, is nowhere to be found. Assuming both are unavailable by the morning of July 26, there will be 21 senators to cast their vote for the chamber’s top officials, just before they troop to the Batasan in the afternoon to listen to the new President’s State of the Nation Address.
As there are no free lunches, the senior Sen. Frank, in giving way to Sen. Kiko, must have been sufficiently mollified with a promise of post and committee chairmanships. So too the come-backing Sen. Ralph Recto and the neophyte Sen. TG Guingona. Everything started within the party after all.
Now the four Liberals need nine more votes, at the least, to clinch the leadership of the Senate. Let us begin with those perceived to be their natural allies – Senators Serge Osmeña and Sen. Francis Escudero, both independents. Surely both have their own choices for committees to head. I would guess that Ralph, Serge and Chiz both in terms of expertise and inclination, would want to head Finance, which presides over the national budget. All three are highly qualified to head Finance in terms of experience and proximity to power. The President would naturally want an ally heading this all-too-powerful committee.
But then the Senate is the more independent of the two houses of Congress, and the new president knows this only too well, having just been there for three years and in the House for nine, before destiny placed him in Malacañang. The 23 republics in the Senate do not always march to the beat of the Palace.
Assuming Sen. Kiko could balance off the committee choices of the aforementioned, then he now has six votes, with seven more to go. There’s Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile, who has publicly stated that he would go for anyone but Manuel Villar, and expressed inclination to support the President’s candidate. But as Senate President, and a highly respected one by his peers, it is obvious to anyone who understands the power games in this country, that Enrile cannot just be given a sop. Once more, I would think the good senator from Cagayan would initially prefer Finance, which he has more than ably led in the past.
While they ran and won handily together in the same party of former President Joseph Estrada, it would be wrong to presume that Sen. Jinggoy Estrada would just follow the senior Enrile come what may. He would, I feel, prefer to remain Senate President pro-tempore, plus one or two choice committees to head. Let me guess: Public Services and Labor?
Assuming Sen. Kiko is able to rein in committee choices and inter-locking desires, he will by now have eight votes, still short of the magic 13. And it becomes trickier as it gets closer to the magic number.
Who could/would the next five senators be? It is at this point that we need to first identify those who can be safely presumed will go for Villar, come what may: Pia and Alan Cayetano, Joker Arroyo, Miriam Defensor-Santiago, Ferdinand Marcos Jr., which with Villar is a base of six. Given the equation, once Sen. Kiko gets nine votes, he shall have strategically stalemated Villar. Remember that the magic number is 13, and the universe, unless Ping Lacson gets back in the nick of time, is 21 electors. If you have nine sewn up, you deprive the other side of the possibility of getting 13. Revisit your elementary algebra, or even plain arithmetic. 21 minus 9 is 12, which is one short of the magic 13.
Which makes the ninth vote the most crucial, after, and only after --- one has ascertained for sure, and in the Senate, unlike in the House, "certitude" is hardly ever sure until zero hour, especially as the new Congress opens. Who shall Number 9 be?
Sen. Kiko may be counting on my grade school classmate Sen. Tito Sotto, as megastar Sharon’s mother, Mrs. Elaine Gamboa Cuneta, is the elder sister of Sen. Tito’s gracious Helen. But Sen. Edgardo Angara, a compleat political gamesman as one could find, has built a bloc to bargain with, comprising himself, plus Senadora Loren, plus Majority Floor Leader Migs Zubiri, plus Senators Tito and Gringo Honasan. And, as per the "Magnificent 5" claims, Senators Bong Revilla and Lito Lapid. If the Bloc’s numbers are real, Sen. Kiko needs to deal with them as a group, whether the original 5 or the expanded 7. Remember that at this point, our count is yet 8, with five more to go.
Senators Bong and Lito’s committee chair preferences are predictable, but then again, into their second terms. Public Works for one and Games and Amusements for the other may no longer be enough. Additionally, Senator Bong has a father, the former senator, who now chairs the Philippine Reclamation Authority, which is an added bargaining chip. And Senator Lito has a son, Mark, the former governor of Pampanga, who is ensconced as head of the Tourism Infrastructure Enterprise Zone Authority (TIEZA), the recently legislated phoenix of tourism risen from the now defunct Philippine Tourism Authority. Because of the political realities at the Senate, our friend Bertie Lim, the new Secretary of Tourism, may have to contend with someone not ideally situated, in an agency so critical to tourism success.
For Sen. Kiko, if he does not get Sen. Tito’s immediate assent despite affinity, may have to first nibble at the fringes of the Angara Bloc. If he gets Senator Bong, that gives him the ninth vote. Sen. Lito will be the tenth. By then, the magic 13 may start folding in, or rather, crumbling in. That means Senators Tito, plus Gringo. But wait!
That would still be short by one precious vote. Would it be Senator Migs? Or Senadora Loren? Or all to include Senator Edong for a total of not just 13, but 15?
Aha! The devil, as I said in the title, is in the committee chairmanships. Senator Edong would likely also want to chair Finance. Agriculture would also be a plum for him, and Senadora Loren, and Senador Migs. Maybe Honasan would be happy with Defense and/or Public Order. But then again he may want to expand his horizons. Senator Tito will surely want more than just the usual drugs problem to battle with.
And then again, who gets to be the Blue Ribbon chair? Or Ways and Means?
It’s pretty difficult terrain Senator Kiko will have to travel, and master, in the next three weeks. In the House, there are peers. In the Senate, there are independent republics. With the help of the President, it is easier to be Speaker of the House, than it is to be Senate President among equals of 23 members, even with the President’s help.
Good luck, my friend!
LITO BANAYO
MALAYA Column for Thursday, 08 July 2010
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