The homestretch

Last March 5, I wrote an article entitled “Time to take stock” in this space. It was then about four weeks since the official campaign period began. I wrote it just before Pulse Asia and SWS would release the results of their field surveys undertaken in the last week of February, or some 20 to 24 days since the campaign began. I said then that the previous surveys had Noynoy Aquino and Manny Villar so close to each other, with the latter leading by as little as two percentage points.

March 5 was a Friday, and if my recollection is right, Pulse came out with its survey results three days after. Noynoy had increased his lead over Villar by 7 points. Erap had gained some, and Gibo languished in single-digit territory.

It is now 17 days before D-Day. The moment of truth is upon all the candidates. The moment of decision is upon the people. The latest survey findings I have seen which I cannot pre-empt show that Noynoy has widened his lead over Villar from 7 points in end-February to 12 points in end-March, and now, as of mid-April, to 14 points. In another private survey which is not likely to be released by the one who commissioned it for private eyes, it was a 15-point lead.

Noynoy’s numbers have not exactly increased, give or take a point or three. But Villar’s numbers have precariously dropped. Though I won’t call it a free-fall, the fact is that the decline has not been arrested for two months now.

The big surprise of this election campaign is how the underestimated Erap has come back from behind, hobbled initially by doubts (mine included) about the legality of his second run. That the Comelec has allowed him to continue has bolstered his numbers. That plus the silence or inaction of the Supreme Court where I understand an appeal had been filed against the Comelec ruling, means that Erap most likely will stay the course.

In the latest surveys that I have seen, Erap is perched so close behind Manny Villar. In one of the surveys, he is just two points behind. If Manny’s numbers keep dipping, Erap should be ahead in the next round of surveys, to be released just a few days before the elections of May 10. In Pilipino, “mauungusan na si Manny”.

Come what may, Erap will remain a major player in Philippine politics for the rest of his mortal life. He has proven to all observers that he does have a hold on a loyal 15% of the electorate. In 2013 and 2016, even as more of those loyalists may be too old to vote, his endorsement would still matter.

The other big surprise of this campaign is the fantastic rise of Jojo Binay. For quite some time he had been languishing in single-digit territory. But with well-crafted ads touting his achievements in Makati, he became double-digit at the start of the campaign, though a wide gap still remained between him and second-placer Loren Legarda. With amazing tenacity, Jojo has held on, and after mending political fences in his fiefdom of Makati, where local surveys show his son Jun-Jun is comfortably ahead, he has now reached statistical tie with twice-senatorial topnotcher Loren. And this is Jojo’s maiden appearance in the national political scene.

Mar Roxas has nothing to worry about, as clearly Jojo, if he beats Loren, will yet end up numero dos in the VP race. Mar’s win is a foregone conclusion. Still and all, Jojo is a class act, by all the markers of political strategy and tactics.

As for the administration’s yet official candidate, Gilbert Teodoro, his numbers have lately been going up at the rate of one percentage point every week, after getting stuck at 6% from the start of the official campaign period. The latest surveys I have seen says he has 9%, while another says he has 8%. Two weeks and a half before D-Day, 9% is not likely to get any higher, even at increased rate, than 12%, and that is assuming that a third of the undecided vote for the “dejado” instead of the “llamado”. That would fly against the bandwagon culture, but I would be pleasantly surprised if that does happen.

So what is my fearless forecast? Noynoy-Mar. With Erap-Binay at Number Two. Or possibly Villar-Binay at number two, and Erap-Loren a close third.

Of course, fearless forecasts do not consider the risks of an automated Garci, as my friend Gus Lagman, who was with me in planning the anti-Marcos Makati rallies back in 1983, calls the looming hazard of the Venezuelan company called Smartmatic.

Last-minute money will give a small perk, but by and large, with the margins between 14-15, local executives will just use the presidentiable’s money either to ensure his mayoralty or congressional win, or pocket the same altogether. It can buy the local incumbent a new luxury car, or the wife a fabulous bauble from Hong Kong jewellers. As the sad spectacle of Gibo’s reliance on “party machinery” is showing, you cannot anchor a presidential run on flags of convenience.

So it’s time to watch out for the cleaners, er … cheaters. A parallel manual count is most ideal; a random audit less than assuring. Better to just pray that the fear of the Lord will strike the hearts of the malefactors.

But given the temper of the times and the desperate yearning of the people for change, which they patiently kept via the electoral route, an automated Garci or any devious variant that would lead to a failure to proclaim, or worse, a failure to exercise the fundamental right of free choice, will lead to a political crisis unlike any other since 1986.

It’s only 17 days distant, and look at the Dona’s eyebags. It’s make or break.

(banayo_at@yahoo.com)

LITO BANAYO
MALAYA Column for Friday, 23 April 2010