Time to take stock

It has been four weeks since the campaign for the presidency began. A third of the 90-day campaign has been spent. It is time for candidates and their handlers to take stock.

The last indicators of voting perception was taken a week or two before the firing gun blasted. And last week, as I understand, both SWS and Pulse Asia did their field surveys, and one or the other is about to publicize its findings. It may come as soon as today, or within the first days of next week. Those surveys will give the candidates a glimpse of whether their messages have resonated with the voter, and whether all they have done or not done over the four weeks since the last field research period, have made a difference in perceptions as well as voting indications.

Remember that this would just be a snapshot of the period when field work was done. In the last few days of January, SWS and Pulse Asia said that basically, Manny Villar has almost caught up with Noynoy Aquino’s earlier lead, as shown in the surveys from mid-September to mid-December. In the forthcoming survey findings, we should know whether Villar has caught up, or even surpassed Noynoy, or whether the latter had recovered his lead somewhat, and by how much.

For both candidates and their handlers, it would be time to tweak their message if the voter resonance has not been so encouraging. Similarly, it would be time to focus on ensuring that their voters can vote by May 10, and this is where the question of machinery, whether paid or voluntary, kicks in. Even as the message-keepers and the so-called spin masters continue to do their work, the other side of campaigning, which is the infrastructure, must be attended to and re-inforced.

In the Aquino camp, hobbled by what may have been a combination of deadly inaction and complacence in the early pre-campaign period, it is crunch time. Was there ever a clear message in the campaign? If not, what is the new message? And whether or not the new message has begun to sink in with the voters, whether the same has been appreciated, and by how much resonance, the February 21-25 surveys (or thereabouts), should show. The only comforting thing about the Noynoy numbers is that while the Villar upsurge has become life-threatening, there’s still plenty of oxygen to draw a re-configured strength from.

In the case of Villar, the challenge is to keep their trajectory upwards, all the way to Election Day. Their spending has been obscenely large, and they need to spend more in the coming weeks and two remaining months. But money is the least of Manny’s worries. He has stacked up enough to single-handedly finance his campaign, however dubious its provenance, which obviously the voter has not yet reconciled with his ability to deliver on his promises, if he gets elected.

Taking stock of where they are, and what lies ahead is all the more significant for those who are not among the two leading candidates bunched together. For Aquino and Villar are in a class all by themselves, numbers wise. Together, they have three-fourths of the vote, with all the seven others (not counting Vetellano Acosta who is clearly a nuisance bet, likely paid by someone just to mess things up a bit for Aquino) fighting among themselves for the other 25%. Half of that in fact, is yet cornered by the third-ranking candidate, former Pres. Estrada, who is getting 12% of the vote. Sadly for Gilbert Teodoro, the official standard-bearer of the humongous Pa-La-Ka of Mrs. Arroyo, he is languishing in the 5 to 6% area, having inched excruciatingly slow from less than a percent some nine months ago. Dick Gordon’s numbers have yet to increase significantly, although his media presence over the past month may have perked his numbers up a bit.

For these three candidates, taking stock may have to be a painful reality check. For those below them, taking stock had better be goodbye, unless they never intended to win anyway, and have carved for themselves a special purpose in running, whether it is to spread his gospel in the case of Bro. Eddie Villanueva, or have a single-minded crusade to prevent someone else from becoming president, as in the case of Sen. Jamby Madrigal.

For if the tale of the numbers show no significant increase, or worse, if the numbers either stagnate or look southward, then it may be time to accept the reality that they cannot win. They may be better qualified than the two front-runners, but clearly, getting up there is no longer feasible. For the results of the late February 2010 survey will indicate whether any more outside funding can be generated for anyone else except the two front-runners. For the other candidates languishing in single-digit territory, or stagnating in 10-12%, they will need to draw from personal fortunes, if any, because the wise money will no longer bet. For them, if they are reasonable or rational enough to see handwritings on the wall, the soon-to-be-released results may be the last chance to take a genuine reality check.

If they decide to be rational and circumspect, they may have to withdraw. They may fade away quietly to lick wounds and dream of better times thereafter, or they may endorse one of the two front-runners. Their negotiating value, if they are at all minded to, may diminish as the campaign progresses. The same however may increase as the campaign goes on, depending on the demand-side of the two front-runners, or the supply side, which is, by some streak of good fortune, someone for inexplicable reasons should sustain them by blood-letting his resources, foolhardy though that may be.

There is an absolute deadline for taking stock though. And that is the next field research, which will be on or about the days preceding Semana Santa. If by the third going to the last week of March, whose results should be out publicly in the days after Easter Sunday, the numbers of everyone else but the two front-runners are still in far distant territory, it may be time to call it quits, and thus give the public a chance for once since Marcos fell, of electing a majority president.

They will have different reasons for throwing in the towel. And there will also be so many personal reasons should obstinacy get the better of sense, and they decide to stand for imminent defeat. But when April kicks in, taking stock will be either more compelling, if one is minded to live for another day; or, it may be a political death wish.

(banayo_at@yahoo.com)

LITO BANAYO
MALAYA Column for Friday, 05 March 2010